I'm absolutely blown away by
this news about GE considering a sell-off of its appliance division. Really, the company that's been making washers and dryers and ovens for 100 years is going to get out of the business because of a housing slump? I've written about alarm guys becoming too dependent on the housing market, but how is it possible that GE's appliance division made the same mistake?
This also speaks, of course, to the hyper-shortened attention span of the U.S. financial markets. GE announces a six percent drop in first quarter profit and everybody starts selling off GE shares? That's insane. Do these people think GE's going out of business sometime soon? Is there an impending bankruptcy because they're only targeting profits of $2.20 a share?
Sometimes it seems like these professional stock traders don't actually know how the market works. The stock price doesn't go down unless you offer to sell it for less than it's currently trading. If you and everyone else just holds onto the stock, the stock price doesn't move at all. It's pretty simple. So, you sit on the stock for a while, the housing market gets its act back together, GE's profits go back up, and then people want your stock for more than you paid for it, and then you sell it off and make a profit. Pretty simple.
But no, the financial services industry has become so large, and so many people are investing in 401ks and mutual funds and all this other hedge fund business, that there's a giant impetus for simply doing something. If you're not buying or selling, you must be bad at what you do, right? And the money that comes in every day from all those 401ks has to be invested in something, right? So the market churns endlessly, and every little quarterly report is cause for some kind of major sell off or buy action, when anyone who's taken Econ 101 knows that a long view of the market is the only thing that makes sense, and it's very, very rare that one quarter, for a company that's been in business for a 100+ years, could possibly mean anything in the long run.
And this stuff drives me insane:
GE also lowered its 2008 profit target to a range of $2.20 to $2.30 a share, with second-quarter earnings pegged at 53 cents to 55 cents a share. Analysts had expected annual earnings of $2.43 and second-quarter earnings of 58 cents a share, according to FactSet.So these "analysts" - they're always in the plural and always aggregated - make a guess at what they think will happen, they're wrong, and a bunch of professional traders decide to sell off GE's stock and cheapen the stock price for everyone still holding it, largely middle Americans who own it as part of a portfolio they didn't even design. That totally makes sense.
This news does seem to portend good things for GE Security, however. A sale would bring in a huge amount of cash for research and development, and if GE Security is selling itself on its technology advantage, that can only help. Further, the smaller the company is as a whole, the more attention GE Security is likely to get from upper management and the board, which theoretically is a good thing, though I'm questioning the wisdom of a board that sees a short-term housing crisis and some lumpiness in the metals markets decides the bottom of the market is the time to sell, seemingly under duress.
Maybe GE Security would be best off if Dean Seavers is left to his own devices.
Labels: GE, Housing market