Mr. Tariff-ic

I was going to write about 2025 predictions this week, but in the spirit of not supporting Christmas music and decorations hitting stores before Thanksgiving is over, I’m going to let that topic stew a while longer.

Instead, I wanted to touch briefly this week on tariffs. If you’ve been following any sort of news, then I’m certain that’s come up in some fashion. I don’t usually linger on political topics in this blog for the same reason you shouldn’t lick the bottom of your shoes, but this bears examination for how it will come to affect the market in the coming year. Tariffs are a sledgehammer where a soft touch would usually do. While they can be a source of government revenue, their revenue is generated at the expense of the consumer, and not the targeted nations typically.

It leads to a form of trade protectionism that historically has been ineffective in protecting domestic production. As I’m writing this, I’m wondering what the long-term effects of this will be on the security industry. What about the CHIPS & Science Act and its efforts to bolster domestic microchip production? Is that burgeoning industry going to be able to weather the demands for chips in a post tariff economy?

I’m not an economist, you can tell because I have a beating heart in my chest, but it’s looking like a situation where some things really do roll up-hill. Trickle up economics you might call it. It will become evident on the balance sheets as reports come in within the next year or so. Maybe it might take longer! I couldn’t really begin to guess beyond that.

And that’s what is going to make writing a 2025 predictions blog so difficult this year. I don’t think we’re going to be wagering on new technologies or business strategies, I think we have to ask ourselves what the economy is going to look like in 12 months.