New resi research promising

U.S. households with professional security monitoring will generate nearly $14.7 billion in 2021, reaching a five-year CAGR of 4.7 percent from 2017-2021, according to Parks Associates' Home Security NUMBERS research.

“Our last number from the fourth quarter of 2016 shows that 21.5 percent of broadband households, which is about 80 percent of overall households, have professionally monitored security,” Tom Kerber, Parks' director of IoT strategy, told Security Systems News. “So when you look at that number on an overall household basis, the number ends up being around 18.8 percent that have professionally monitored security.”

That is approximately 22 million households, and by 2021 Parks estimates that number will rise to 26.6 million, or 21.6 percent of households overall, having professionally monitored security, representing an approximately 3 percent growth rate.

“Over the last decade it has never been close to that 21.6 percent number,” noted Kerber. “In 2010, the number was 13 percent, so that is strong growth. Although from a conventional wisdom perspective it doesn't sound like much, it is substantial. We had significant recovery from the recession from 2013-15, and now the growth is more modest, but it is still growing.”

When asked about the impact of the telecoms into the space, Kerber noted that Comcast is making waves.

“Comcast when they went public with their subscriber count at 957,000 as part of their annual reporting, that was substantial, representing a 40 percent growth over the prior year,” he said. ”Whether it is bundling with their core services, or subscribing people when they move, or more aggressive sales tactics mixed with their call center operations, they obviously have figured out how to move the needle in a substantial way. At a million subscribers, they are equivalent to Moni, or Vivint to some extent. So you can't discount that type of success.”

He continued, “Telecoms, led by Comcast, are growing at a faster rate than the market is growing, so they are gaining market shares. And when we look at some of the smaller players, they are not growing at the same rate as others in the market, and we are trying to understand why this is happening through some current research that we are doing.”

Dina Abdelrazik, research analyst, Parks Associates, told SSN that some of the smaller local dealers “are a little more hesitant to provide smart home controls. I don't know if it is more of an infrastructure basis—they don't have the employees to do so or the technological savvy to do so—but they are falling behind in terms of providing these controllers in the home that consumers are actively asking for. So, of course, if consumers can't find it through their local dealer, they are going to look to those who can provide it for them.”